Long time no see…
I just remembered, I HAVE A BLOG.
First of all, MUSIC. This is what I’m listening to at this very moment:
Now, back to teh blog. Sure, nobody reads the thing, but that’s not an excuse. A whole lot of not being anywhere near a computer for a while, THAT’S an excuse, and I’ve got that one down cold. I can’t really talk about my life that much, but I can at least hammer out a few thoughts now and again…
So since the last time I was here, the Great Red Wave began to build. I think it’s begun to crest a bit, but it’s still gonna be epic. The rumor that has everyone on edge is the one out of Florida, saying Meek is going to drop out and endorse Crist as the only guy who can beat Rubio. That’s not gonna happen, and here’s why:
First, that rumor is easily traced back to Crist’s campaign. That automatically makes it suspect, because this guy will say absolutely anything to get elected. He’s the definition of a political whore, and proud of it.
The idea is to create the fear that Meek is going to quit, which will cause some of his more weak-minded supporters to give up on him. That, in turn, should lead to a polling bump for Crist, a downward sucking sensation for Meek, and force Meek to quit whether he wants to or not. The problem with that idea is that anybody supporting Meek at this point is doing so because they like the guy. He has no weak-minded supporters, only the hardcore cultists that propelled the President to victory over Hillary in the primary. Furthermore, even somebody named Meek has gotta have some pride.
Now then. Let’s say Meek did quit, just before the early voting started. That’d be sometime this next week, probably around lunchtime Tuesday. This puts the story in the news cycle until the weekend — and the conventional wisdom will be that Meek dropping out will be helpful to Crist. That’s possible, but not for the long-term. Since the conventional wisdom will be good for Crist, he’ll get a poll bump of five to eight points, plus whatever eggheads decide to go with Crist just because Meek told them to. That will put Crist within shouting distance of fifty, but it won’t be quite enough.
See, to get those voters, he has to A.) convince those vestigial Republicans that he hasn’t switched parties, while B.) convincing all of Meek’s voters that he HAS switched parties, and C.) get em all to turn out to vote, and D.) keep that up until election night. A will be tough, B will be tougher, C is flat-out impossible for anyone, and D is rendered irrelevant. Dude, Meek’s support is made up of the entirety of the African-American vote in Florida. You’re telling me they’ll show up for the orange guy who knocked out the black guy, just so he could get elected?
There is no possible way you’re gonna bridge that gap in under a month. They’ll stay home, and that’s somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% of the Florida Democrats’ voting bloc. Even if most of them show up, he’s still hosed.
And when those Democrats stay home, guess who else loses? Alex Sink, the Democrat running for governor. The Democrats aren’t going to ask the only black candidate in Florida to step aside for an orange candidate already destined for the ash heap of history, just so they can also lose the gubernatorial race. They’d be nuts to try.